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Weekly RevCon Update: Week 1 (May 3-7) of the NPT Review Conference

Weekly RevCon Update: Week 1 (May 3-7) of the NPT Review Conference

May 13, 2010

Last week, ISIS attended Week 1 of the NPT Review Conference, and returned cautiously optimistic about the atmosphere and progress thus far on substantive work. Although it remains in doubt whether a substantial final document can be achieved, countries may yet find common ground on a general strengthening of their commitments to the Treaty, reiterate past conference decisions, and lay out a consensus containing agreements to be implemented over the next five years. The United States’ recent transparency about the size of its nuclear arsenal and renewed commitment to disarmament has created a favorable atmosphere for negotiations. Furthermore, Iran’s early attempts to block the start of work over procedural issues, in particular seeking to prevent the establishment of a subsidiary body in Main Committee III that would cover strengthening treaty withdrawal provisions, were thwarted by agreement that the subsidiary body would cover the NPT institutional deficit in addition to responses to withdrawal.

Interesting information heard around the Review Conference regarding particular country views and conference priorities:

Egypt:

Would respect President Obama’s intervention on the Middle East nuclear weapon free zone (NWFZ) issue, and would prefer to negotiate directly with the United States
Feels action must be taken on the NWFZ issue, not simply discussion for the next five years

South Africa:

Viewed the U.S. opening statement as very positive given domestic political constraints, and in particular transparency about nuclear weapon numbers
Believes the United States cannot carry all of the nuclear weapon states, and that they need to deliver their own commitments on disarmament
Saw U.S. Nuclear Posture Review as generally favorable, except its turning of treaty compliance into an issue by indicating those not in compliance could be attacked with nuclear weapons
Views lack of serious prosecution of A.Q. Khan network members critically, given the threat the network posed to the NPT, and since it was virtually alone in successfully prosecuting key network members

United States:

Sees two possible positive outcomes of the conference: a short final document, or something longer, which could be obtained through reaching agreement with Egypt on the Mideast NWFZ issue
Will remain tough on nonproliferation objectives
Wonders whether Iran is even in a position to endorse a Mideast NWFZ

Australia:

Believes the Mideast NWFZ will likely be dealt with at the end of the conference, and the Arab League recognizes that Israel’s nuclear capability cannot be dealt with overnight
Does not want to see further exemptions made for countries outside the NPT at the Nuclear Suppliers Group
Believes the conference should not backslide from previous conference decisions

Germany:

Thinks a final document should set an agenda for the next few years, devote balance to all three pillars, and acknowledge that parallel moves on all pillars will be the only way to move ahead
Views with moderate optimism the possibility for reaching a balanced document
Considers Iran unwilling to be “named and shamed” at the conference, or singled out over preventing discussion on Article X
Notes that the “Obama factor” has inspired the conference, and many are amazed at how well the beginning of the conference has gone

Canada:

Believes it is key that language on the Additional Protocol and withdrawal from the treaty be included in a final document
Views UN Resolution 1887 as offering potential language usable in a final document

Selected conference opening statements and key points:

International Atomic Energy Agency, Director General Yukiya Amano

By 2030, 10-25 new countries will introduce nuclear power
Agency is unable to verify activities are of a peaceful nature in Iran and Syria
Additional Protocol allows Agency to provide “credible assurances” of non diversion and no undeclared activities, urges states to bring into force

United States, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton

Recognizes U.S. responsibility as nuclear weapon state to move toward disarmament, says it will do its part
Committed to ratifying CTBT, ready to start negotiations on a FMCT
Will sign legally binding assurance of non-use of nuclear weapons against Africa, South Pacific nuclear weapon free zones
Committed to a Middle East weapons of mass destruction free zone
Will make public number of U.S. nuclear weapons
Commits $50 million to IAEA Peaceful Uses Initiative, seeks matching donation
Seeks tightened controls on transshipment, restrictions on transfers of sensitive technology
Wants accountability from states withdrawing from the NPT

Australia, Minister of Foreign Affairs Stephen Smith

Package of disarmament and nonproliferation measures, submitted with Japan, could help achieve consensus for new agreements
Additional Protocol with comprehensive safeguards agreement should be basic verification standard, should be condition of supply of nuclear materials
UN Security Council should address, if necessary, issues of noncompliance and withdrawal
Supports implementation of 1995 Resolution on the Middle East

Norway, State Secretary Gry Larsen

Need to strengthen commitments to NPT, set new forward looking agenda
Nuclear weapon states should refrain from developing new types of nuclear weapons, pursue disarmament transparently
Negative security assurances should be strengthened
Supports creation of new nuclear weapon free zones and Middle East zone
Should negotiate FMCT elsewhere if Conference on Disarmament fails negotiate a treaty

P-5, Director Anatoly I. Antonov, Department for Security Affairs and Disarmament, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Russian Federation (on behalf of)

Reaffirm Article VI obligations to work toward disarmament
Continue to seek ratification of CTBT, will continue to observe moratoria on nuclear tests
Believe comprehensive safeguards agreements with additional protocol should become universally recognized verification norm
Should have noncompliance brought to Security Council as necessary
Committed to full implementation of Middle East resolution
Welcome and join Obama’s effort to secure all nuclear materials in four years
Call for state parties to be held responsible for violations of Treaty committed prior to withdrawal
Welcome discussion of modalities for responding to withdrawal, such as disposition of equipment and materials acquired while a member state

See all country statements at the UN Review Conference 2010 website.

Remarks by officials:

Power Point slides from presentation entitled “U.S. Commitment to Disarmament,” U.S. delegation briefing by Thomas D’Agostino, Administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration, NPT Review Conference, New York City, May 5, 2010.

News Round-up from Week 1 of the conference:

“After Opening Speeches, NPT Review Conference Gets Down to Business,” Xinhua, May 7, 2010.

“Some Activists Losing Faith in Obama Nuclear Weapons Agenda,” Global Security Newswire, May 7, 2010.

“Turkey Urges More Support for UN Atomic Watchdog,” Xinhua, May 7, 2010.

“Chile Urges Consensus at NPT Review Conference,” Xinhua, May 7, 2010.

“U.S. Joins UN Council at Iran Dinner in New York,” Reuters, May 6, 2010.

“Egypt Says Big Powers Discussing Nuclear-Free Mideast Plan,” May 6, 2010.

“‘The 5’ Favor Concrete Steps to Nuke-Free Mideast,” Associated Press, May 6, 2010.

“Iran, DPRK Urged to Respond to World Concerns for Proper Nuclear Issue Solutions,” Xinhua, May 6, 2010.

“Indonesia to Ratify UN-Backed Pact Banning Nuclear Testing,” Bernama, May 5, 2010.

“Russia Seen Under Pressure to Disclose Arsenal Details,” Global Security Newswire, May 5, 2010.

“Germany Calls for Global Nuclear Disarmament, Including NATO,” Xinhua, May 5, 2010.

“Ukraine Demands Security Assurances for Renouncing Atomic Arsenals,” Xinhua, May 5, 2010.