NPT Review Conference: Outcome Too Close to Call
May 27, 2010
With only a little over a day remaining in the 2010 NPT Review Conference, yesterday’s tempered optimism that countries would be able to reach consensus on a final document of any substance seems to be wearing thin, and many are characterizing the outcome of the conference as too close to call, or worse.
Yesterday delegations and regional groups seemed to be digging in rather than moderating their positions. A South American diplomat said this morning that tense side negotiations were taking place over disarmament and nonproliferation language, and that “nothing dramatic” should be expected in a final consensus document. A Western government official this afternoon said he was not optimistic about chances for a final document. Another Western diplomat was confident that delegates would be able to agree on a final, balanced declaration.
There are still several thorny issues that have the potential to block consensus.
Problematic negotiation process
Since yesterday, various country trios, quartets, or larger groupings have been appointed by President Cabactulan to work out differences over language on several contentious issues. No one is certain if the process will be successful; some groups are close to agreement on disputed language, while consensus eludes others. One Western government official noted that these side negotiations are significantly opaque and have created uncertainty among the delegations not directly involved, although he acknowledged that they do require an amount of confidentiality. According to this official, some delegations are expressing dissatisfaction with the draft declaration as a whole, and their intention to work toward consensus at all is in doubt.
No consensus on disarmament or withdrawal language
The P5 yesterday continued to object to language sought by the NAM that is now included in the draft action plan for disarmament. The P5 require that any mention of timelines for disarmament or calls to halt modernization of nuclear weapons be struck from the text, and four of the five want no mention of legally binding security assurances. The NAM, including Iran, is demanding inclusion of these commitments, but it is unlikely that the P5 will change their positions. Iran’s Ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, said during an impromptu exchange with reporters and observers outside the afternoon plenary meeting that the P5 will have to agree tomorrow to a timeline for disarmament if they want to have a successful conference. It is not clear whether Iran will block consensus tomorrow if there is no resolution to this issue.
Effort by several delegations, including the United States, to obtain strong language addressing withdrawal from the NPT under Article X is “dead,” according to Western government officials. Iran was reportedly among those that disputed all language bracketed in the draft declaration, including affirmation that withdrawing countries remain responsible for safeguards violations committed while party to the Treaty.
Inconclusive Middle East negotiations
Arab League and P5 negotiations continued today over terms of action for strengthening the 1995 resolution on the Middle East. Central issues are whether a conference to discuss a Middle East nuclear weapon free zone will be held under the auspices of the United Nations, whether or not there will be follow-on meetings to the conference, and whether actual negotiations will take place, rather than general discussion. Syria was reportedly excluded from the negotiations because it raised significant objections to positions held by the Arab League. A Western government diplomat believed that the talks between Egypt and the United States on the Middle East nuclear weapon free zone issue had significant opportunity to play spoiler tomorrow if the parties are unable to reach agreement.
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