Reports

Iran’s Long-Term Centrifuge Enrichment Plan: Providing Needed Transparency

by Institute for Science and International Security

August 2, 2016

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The Associated Press recently obtained Iran’s enrichment and enrichment R&D plan that was negotiated as part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The plan is an integral part of the limits contained in JCPOA but it has not been made public. We believe the Associated Press has done a valuable public service and the plan should not be secret. The plan includes the expected growth of Iran’s centrifuge program during years 9-13 of the JCPOA. We have seen the plan and report on it in detail in this report. Combined with information about the capacities of Iran’s key advanced centrifuges, we have assessed Iran’s breakout time at year 13 to be four months. This value based on this information is less than our August 2015 estimate of six months at year 13.

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