Comprehensive Updated Assessment of Iranian Nuclear Sites Five Months After the 12-Day War
Five months after the 12 Day War’s conclusion, it is useful to take stock of the status of Iran's nuclear enrichment and weaponization sites that were attacked. Are the sites being rebuilt, sanitized, or left as they were on the day they were bombed?
Recent Satellite Imagery shows the Construction of a Concrete Sarcophagus over Taleghan 2
Based on the most recent Airbus OneAtlas imagery available of the Taleghan 2 site taken on December 25, 2025, the Iranians appear to be about mid-way through in the construction of a concrete sarcophagus to encase the metal arched roof that covers the central main facility.
Case Study: Millions of Dollars’ Worth of Tier One Common High Priority Items Exported from China to Russia
This case study is an assessment of roughly one month of trade data scrutinizing Chinese exports to Russia of Tier 1 goods valued at roughly $40 millions of dollars. Tier 1 goods are the most important items Russia needs to manufacture and build the precision-guided weapon systems critical to waging war in Ukraine. They are further characterized by the lack of Russia’s domestic production of them and limited global manufacturers, requiring Russia to import them. This case study adds to the growing body of work that China not only has emerged as a critical source of Tier 1 items, cementing its role as a key backer of Russia’s military industrial complex, but it does not take any meaningful steps to block these transfers.
Imagery Update of Activities at North Korea’s Yongbyon Site
In his November 2025 statement to the Board of Governors, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Director General’s statement included new information about nuclear activities at the Yongbyon nuclear center. While the IAEA did not issue a formal report, his statement is worth incorporating into recent satellite imagery analysis.
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Recent Satellite Imagery shows the Construction of a Concrete Sarcophagus over Taleghan 2
Based on the most recent Airbus OneAtlas imagery available of the Taleghan 2 site taken on December 25, 2025, the Iranians appear to be about mid-way through in the construction of a concrete sarcophagus to encase the metal arched roof that covers the central main facility.
Case Study: Millions of Dollars’ Worth of Tier One Common High Priority Items Exported from China to Russia
This case study is an assessment of roughly one month of trade data scrutinizing Chinese exports to Russia of Tier 1 goods valued at roughly $40 millions of dollars. Tier 1 goods are the most important items Russia needs to manufacture and build the precision-guided weapon systems critical to waging war in Ukraine. They are further characterized by the lack of Russia’s domestic production of them and limited global manufacturers, requiring Russia to import them. This case study adds to the growing body of work that China not only has emerged as a critical source of Tier 1 items, cementing its role as a key backer of Russia’s military industrial complex, but it does not take any meaningful steps to block these transfers.
Comprehensive Updated Assessment of Iranian Nuclear Sites Five Months After the 12-Day War
Five months after the 12 Day War’s conclusion, it is useful to take stock of the status of Iran's nuclear enrichment and weaponization sites that were attacked. Are the sites being rebuilt, sanitized, or left as they were on the day they were bombed?
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In our most recent X space talk, David Albright @DAVIDHALBRIGHT1, Sarah Burkhard @SarahBurkhard, and Spencer Faragasso @SFnuclear discuss the ongoing protests in Iran at the start of 2026. The conversation revolves around the aftermath of public demonstrations, support from President Trump, potential U.S. military intervention, and the critical state of Iran's nuclear assets. The team analyzes possible outcomes including a shift to a democratic government, continuation of the current regime, or a military dictatorship. They also compare similar historical situations in South Africa, Iraq, and post-Soviet Union Russia to provide context. The importance of international collaboration, particularly with the IAEA, in monitoring and securing Iran’s nuclear facilities is emphasized. Lastly, the need for swift U.S. and European action to support Iranian protesters and to prevent negative outcomes is underscored.
00:00 Introduction and Welcome
00:30 Current Situation in Iran
02:27 US and International Response
05:31 Potential Outcomes and Scenarios
17:54 Historical Context and Comparisons
30:13 Future Prospects and Recommendations
37:10 Final Thoughts and Conclusion
Listen to the recording on X: https://x.com/i/spaces/1djxXWqDoEBJZ?s=20
Listen to the recording via mp3 file here: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/rvcd2kg1xvczn0rm6a0qs/Twitter-Space-January-13-2026_Final.mp3?rlkey=n29rdospiczwq3st01z7plzbt&st=mbinht2q&dl=0
Read the transcript here: https://isis-online.org/audio-video
To follow the Institute on X, click here.